Kentucky Derby won by a bolter

100/1 shot wins the Grand National, now a 50/1 shot (on track, 150 or higher on Betfair) wins the Kentucky Derby. What a year for bookmakers!

Calvin Borrell let Mine That Bird drop out to a long last, the leaders went ridiculously fast and Borrell weaved his magic through the field, stuck tight to the rail, went around just one horse and streaked away by 6.75 lengths. Borrell is a genius, he weaved a similar path to win in 06 on Street Sense.

Who said pace on dirt meant everything? Pace figures are over-rated, pace maps (rating how the horses will sit in the race and how fast they will go) are much more important.

On a side note - that means a massvie rollover, over $600k for next Wednesday's Pick 6 at Churchill Downs. Start doing the form!

Comments

It's all gone Pete Tong at Betfair!

The Christmas Hurdle from Leopardstown, a good Grade 2 race during the holiday period. But now it will go into history as the race which brought Betfair down. Over £21m at odds of 29 available on Voler La Vedette in-running - that's a potential liability of over £500m. You might think that's a bit suspicious, something's fishy, especially with the horse starting at a Betfair SP of 2.96. Well, this wasn't a horse being stopped by a jockey either - the bloody horse won! Look at what was matched at 29. Split that in half and multiply by 28 for the actual liability for the layer(s). (Matched amounts always shown as double the backers' stake, never counts the layers' risk). There's no way a Betfair client would have £600m+ in their account. Maybe £20 or even £50m from the massive syndicates who regard(ed) Betfair as safer than any bank, but not £600m. So the error has to be something technical. However, rumour has it, a helpdesk reply (not gospel, natur

Betdaq.... sold...... FOR HOW MUCH???

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lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

Sport is made for betting

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